Is the geoeffectiveness of the 6 January 1997 CME predictable from solar observations?

Details Is the geoeffectiveness of the 6 January 1997 CME predictable from solar observations? Is the geoeffectiveness of the 6 January 1997 CME predictable from solar observations?

Dec 1997

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997georl..24.2965z&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 24, Issue 23, p. 2965-2968

Physics

18

Planetology: Solid Surface Planets: Atmospheres-Composition And Chemistry, Planetology: Solar System Objects: Mars, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Chemical Kinetic And Photochemical Properties, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Planetary Atmospheres

Scientific paper

We present a prediction scheme for specifying the duration and maximum strength of the southward IMF within a magnetic cloud from observations of the disappearing filament associated with the coronal mass ejection and the photospheric magnetic field made near the filament disappearing. Using this scheme we were able to predict that the Earth directed 6 January 1997 coronal mass ejection would be geoeffective. We expected that the southward IMF interval would have a maximum strength of -13+/-5nT and a duration of 14+/-5 hours. This compares favorably with the WIND observations of -15nT and 13 hours.

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