Epidemic variability in complex networks

Details Epidemic variability in complex networks Epidemic variability in complex networks

2006-02-23

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0602562v2

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2006 Apr;73(4 Pt 2):046131

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046131

We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of initial conditions on the epidemic's dynamics and its variability. The results display a time regime during which the prevalence exhibits a large sensitivity to noise. We also investigate the dependence of the infection time on nodes' degree and distance to the seed. In particular, we show that the infection time of hubs have large fluctuations which limit their reliability as early-detection stations. Finally, we discuss the effect of the multiplicity of shortest paths between two nodes on the infection time. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the existence of even longer paths reduces the average infection time. These different results could be of use for the design of time-dependent containment strategies.

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