Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices

Details Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices

2000-02-05

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0002075v4

Physica A 294 (3-4), 465-502 (15 May 2001)

Physics

Condensed Matter

29 pages including 37 figures, addition of a Note Added in Proofs connecting with the independent analysis of Nottale, Chaline

Scientific paper

10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00105-4

Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occuring at the same critical time 2052 +- 10 signaling an abrupt transition to a new regime. The degree of abruptness can be infered from the fact that the maximum of the world population growth rate was reached in 1970, i.e., about 80 years before the predicted singular time, corresponding to approximately 4% of the studied time interval over which the acceleration is documented. This rounding-off of the finite-time singularity is probably due to a combination of well-known finite-size effects and friction and suggests that we have already entered the transition region to a new regime. In theoretical support, a multivariate analysis coupling population, capital, R&D and technology shows that a dramatic acceleration in the population during most of the timespan can occur even though the isolated dynamics do not exhibit it. Possible scenarios for the cross-over and the new regime are discussed. Nottale, Chaline and Grou have recently independently applied a log-periodic analysis to the main crises of different civilisations. It is striking that these two independent analyses based on a different data set gives a critical time which is compatible within the error bars.

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