Stock market crashes are outliers

Details Stock market crashes are outliers Stock market crashes are outliers

1997-11-30

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9712005v3

European Physical Journal B 1, 141-143 (1998)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

8 pages, 3 figures (accepted in European Physical Journal B)

Scientific paper

10.1007/s100510050163

We call attention against what seems to a widely held misconception according to which large crashes are the largest events of distributions of price variations with fat tails. We demonstrate on the Dow Jones Industrial index that with high probability the three largest crashes in this century are outliers. This result supports suggestion that large crashes result from specific amplification processes that might lead to observable pre-cursory signatures.

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