Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediction System

Details Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediction System Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediction System

May 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agusmsh52a..05v&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2002, abstract #SH52A-05

Physics

7514 Energetic Particles (2114), 2114 Energetic Particles, Heliospheric (7514), 2139 Interplanetary Shocks

Scientific paper

We are creating a system to predict the arrival times and maximum intensities of energetic storm particle (ESP) events at the earth using particle fluxes measured by the EPAM instrument aboard NASA's ACE spacecraft. Real-time flux measurements, consisting of 5 minute averages made available 24 hours per day by the NOAA Space Environment Center, are fed into algorithms looking for characteristic changes in flux, velocity dispersion, and anisotropy. These quantities typically show changes up to 3 hours before shock passage, and thus we expect our system to deliver enhanced probabilities for shock arrival with approximately the same lead time. Forecasting information will be made publicly available through http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/ACE/EPAM/, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab web site for the ACE/EPAM instrument. Early results on the training of our algorithms and comparisons with past shock data will be presented.

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