Discrete Scaling in Stock Markets Before Crashes

Details Discrete Scaling in Stock Markets Before Crashes Discrete Scaling in Stock Markets Before Crashes

1995-09-06

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9509033v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

7 pages LaTeX, 5 uuencoded Postscript figures

Scientific paper

We propose a picture of stock market crashes as critical points in a hierachical system with discrete scaling. The critical exponent is then complex, leading to log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indexes. We present ``experimental'' evidence in favor of this prediction. This picture is in the spirit of the known earthquake-stock market analogy and of recent work on log-periodic fluctuations associated with earthquakes.

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