Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm51a1739k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM51A-1739
Physics
[2447] Ionosphere / Modeling And Forecasting, [2463] Ionosphere / Plasma Convection, [2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2788] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetic Storms And Substorms
Scientific paper
A new system approach to accurate Space Weather prediction and monitoring has been developed. We obtained a new solar wind-geomagnetic activity coupling function which provides the best fit with geomagnetic activity indices and other events. This coupling function accounts for the saturation effect in geomagnetic activity and other disturbances as well as for the non-linear character of the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. The latter includes the dependence of the size of the region of open (reconnected) magnetic field lines at the ionospheric level on the magnitude and direction of the interplanetary magnetic field vector. We applied this coupling function, in combination with newly developed Polar Magnetic (PM) indices (Lyatsky and Khazanov, 2008; Space Weather), to forecasting major ionospheric and magnetospheric parameters such as the cross-polar cap potential drop, Joule heating, Dst variations, relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit, and others. We found that this new coupling function, combined with the PM indices, significantly improves the reliability of monitoring and forecasting the key ionospheric and magnetospheric parameters. The correlation coefficient between forecasted and actual values of most parameters increases to ~ 0.9 and greater.
Khazanov George V.
Lyatsky Wladislav
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