Forecasting geomagnetic activities from the Boyle Index

Details Forecasting geomagnetic activities from the Boyle Index Forecasting geomagnetic activities from the Boyle Index

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm51a1738b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM51A-1738

Physics

[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2784] Magnetospheric Physics / Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, [2788] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetic Storms And Substorms, [7959] Space Weather / Models

Scientific paper

The Boyle Index (BI), Φ =10-4}( {v{2}/{km/sec) + 11.7({(B)/(nT)})sin 3}{(θ /2) kV, has been successful in predicting the geomagnetic activity since its inception in October 2003. It is available in near-real-time from http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/wind.html and provides space weather predictions of geomagnetic indices (Kp, Dst and the AE) in real time through neural network algorithms. In addition, it provides free email alerts to its 700+ subscribers whenever the magnetospheric activity levels exceed certain pre-defined thresholds. We are constantly improving our algorithms, in the interest of either including more data or improving the accuracy and lead-time of forecasts. For example, with the inclusion of two more years of data (2008 and 2009) in the training, we have the advantage of modeling one of the deepest solar minimums, which has been exceptionally low in terms of the activity level. Our algorithms have been successful in capturing the effects of ``preconditioning" and the non-linearity in the solar wind parameters (for example, see figure 1). This paper presents our new attempts to include the effects of solar turbulence by incorporating the standard deviations in the solar wind parameters along with the BI, for greater the turbulence the higher the energy input into the magnetosphere as some of the previous studies have shown. Furthermore, we will also present how 3-hour averaged 1-hour sliding window scheme have improved our predictions with lead times of 3 hours or longer. Our predictions from a recent activity, 03 August 2010.

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