Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

Details Football goal distributions and extremal statistics Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

2001-10-29

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0110605v2

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

7 pages, 3 figures

Scientific paper

10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01030-0

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored cannot be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions; here, we compare the PDFs with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71 to 2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.

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