Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes

Details Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes

2006-06-21

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0606192v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical
baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how
should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future
number of intense hurricanes?

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