Ultimate limits to error probabilities for ionospheric models based on solar geophysical indices and how these compare with the state of the art

Details Ultimate limits to error probabilities for ionospheric models based on solar geophysical indices and how these compare with the state of the art Ultimate limits to error probabilities for ionospheric models based on solar geophysical indices and how these compare with the state of the art

Feb 1981

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1981pbis.agarq....n&link_type=abstract

In AGARD The Phys. Basis of the Ionosphere in the Solar-Terrest. System 7 p (SEE N81-23507 14-42)

Physics

Geophysics

Atmospheric Models, Auroras, Earth Ionosphere, Electrojets, Errors, Geophysics, Explorer Satellites, Least Squares Method, Satellite Observation

Scientific paper

An ideal model based on a given set of geophysical indices is defined as a model that provides a least squares fit to the data set as a function of the indices considered. Satellite measurements of electron content for three stations at different magnetic latitudes were used to provide such data sets which were each fitted to the geophysical indices. The magnitude of the difference between the measured value and the derived equation for the data set was used to estimate the probability of making an error greater than a given magnitude for such an ideal model. Atmospheric Explorer C data is used to examine the causes of the fluctuations and suggestions are made about how real improvements can be made in ionospheric forecasting ability. Joule heating inputs in the auroral electrojets are related to the AL and AU magnetic indices. Magnetic indices based on the time integral of the energy deposited in the electrojets are proposed for modeling processes affected by auroral zone heating.

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