Physics
Scientific paper
Feb 1981
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1981pbis.agarq....b&link_type=abstract
In AGARD The Phys. Basis of the Ionosphere in the Solar-Terrest. System 7 p (SEE N81-23507 14-42)
Physics
Magnetic Fields, Predictions, Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Dynamo Theory, Solar Maximum Mission, Solar Physics
Scientific paper
The various techniques used to predict the magnitude of a forthcoming sunspot maximum are reviewed. Details of individual methods are not considered, but full bibliographical references are given. Most of the techniques are discussed in relation to their applications to the current solar cycle number 21. During the last decade there was substantial improvement in prediction abilities arising from the realization that a solar cycle is being built up for several years prior to its conventional beginning at sunspot minimum. This means that information about the nature and size of an up coming cycle must be contained in both solar and terrestrial data obtained during the declining phase of an old cycle and around the minimum. Various prediction applications of this principle are discussed which show considerable promise. These methods break ground in having a degree of physical backing rather than being purely empirical or dependent on the existence of periodicities in the sunspot number time series.
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