Physics
Scientific paper
Aug 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3416702t&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 16, CiteID L16702
Physics
7
Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Evolution Of The Atmosphere (1610, 8125), Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Pressure, Density, And Temperature, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Troposphere: Composition And Chemistry, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Instruments And Techniques
Scientific paper
We examine the sensitivity of modeled and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trend amplification (the ratio of T2LT ``lower troposphere'' to surface changes) to several sources of uncertainty. Model behaviour is robust across a large perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3, yielding a smaller amplification range (1.44 +/- 0.06) than a previous multi-model ensemble (1.41 +/- 0.24). The uncertainty of inter-satellite calibration implied by available MSU T2 (mid-troposphere) estimates (σ = 0.035K) is much greater than that required to adequately resolve the trend (σ < 0.01K), or the amplification behaviour (implied amplification range +/-0.95). Trend amplification uncertainty in both models and observations decreases as the timescale increases. Depending upon choice of dataset and time period, uncertainty in trend amplification estimates over 21 years lies between +/-1.5 and +/-0.2.
Collins Marieke
Jones Gareth S.
McCarthy Mark P.
Murphy James M.
Parker David E.
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