Physics – Fluid Dynamics
Scientific paper
Jun 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3811804c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 11, CiteID L11804
Physics
Fluid Dynamics
1
Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Cyclones
Scientific paper
A newly developed global model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) which is designed for both weather predictions and climate-change simulations, is used to predict the tropical cyclone activity at 25-km resolution. Assuming the persistence of the sea surface temperature anomaly during the forecast period, we show that the inter-annual variability of seasonal prediction for hurricane counts in the North Atlantic basin is highly predictable during the past decade (2000-2010). A remarkable correlation of 0.96 between the observed and model predicted hurricane counts is achieved. The root-mean-square error of the predicted hurricane number is less than 1 per year after correcting the model's negative bias. The predictive skill of the model in the tropics is further supported by the successful prediction of a Madden-Julian Oscillation event initialized 7-day in advance of its onset.
Chen Jan-Huey
Lin Shian-Jiann
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