The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California

Details The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California

2001-02-02

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0102032v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

email: kristy@fractal.colorado.edu

Scientific paper

We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.

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