Solar Cycle 24 Forecasts

Details Solar Cycle 24 Forecasts Solar Cycle 24 Forecasts

Mar 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006sunge...1a...8m&link_type=abstract

Sun and Geosphere, vol.1, no. 1, p. 8-11

Physics

5

Scientific paper

The forecasts of the solar cycle 24 activities using the neural network method were made. For the sunspot relative number, June 2006 as the next minimum epoch with a value around 18 and, December 2009 as the next maximum epoch with a value of around 145 were obtained. For the 2800 MHz solar radio flux, the next minimum epochs with an approximate value of 75, on May 2006, and the next maximum epoch with a value of about 195, on December 2009, were forecasted. The time phase of both minima and maxima agrees very well which gives us a hope in a good behaviour of our approach. The forecasts of the geomagnetic aa, Dst, Ap and Kp indices were also done with the same pre-processing (gaussian monthly smoothed mean) and the same neural net for the same forecast horizon.

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