Solar Active Region Classification and Flare Forecasting

Details Solar Active Region Classification and Flare Forecasting Solar Active Region Classification and Flare Forecasting

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm54a..07c&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM54A-07

Mathematics

Probability

[7924] Space Weather / Forecasting

Scientific paper

There are two sunspot classification systems that are currently being used to forecast the probability of a solar active region flaring, the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system and the Modified Zurich classification system. Once a solar active region emerges on the visible solar disk, it is classified using both of these systems. An individual active region's flaring probability is produced using a well-known table of probabilities (based on the Modified Zurich system), and these probabilities are modified using rules of thumb based on the Mount Wilson system information. A study has been conducted taking solar cycle 23 active regions, re-classifying these regions, and then using the look-up table and legacy rule to provide a probability. These probabilities were then compared to actual flare rates. The presentation will discuss the issues with current classification systems, why look-up table flare forecasting does not work, and where improvements to the current classification systems can be made.

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