Prediction of the human life expectancy

Details Prediction of the human life expectancy Prediction of the human life expectancy

2003-05-13

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0305277v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

8 pages including 4 figures; for Theory in Biosciences

Scientific paper

We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a population are negligible, while improving the methods of compensation of genetic defects or genetically determined proneness to many disorders drastically affects the average life span of organisms. Age distribution and mortality of the simulated populations correspond very well to real demographic data available from different countries. Basing on the comparison of structures of real human populations and the results of simulations it is possible to predict changes in the age structure of populations in the future.

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