Predicting solar wind conditions at Mars

Physics – Plasma Physics

Scientific paper

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6225 Mars, 7800 Space Plasma Physics

Scientific paper

High energy particles generated during solar/interplanetary disturbances will pose a serious hazard to crew members traveling beyond low-Earth orbit. In order to provide warnings of dangerous radiation conditions, mission operators will need accurate forecasts of solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes and fluences in interplanetary space. However, physics-based models for accelerating and propagating SEPs require specifications and predictions of the solar wind conditions and IMF configuration near the evolving interplanetary shock region, and along the IMF lines connecting the shock to the observation point. We are presently using the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry kinematic solar wind model to predict, in real time, solar wind conditions in the inner heliosphere, including at the location of Mars. We are also conducting retrospective Mars space weather studies by simulating solar wind conditions during significant solar event periods and comparing modeling results with disturbance signatures observed at Mars. These signatures include enhancements in the energetic particle environment at Mars, and instrument anomalies on spacecraft orbiting Mars. We will present recent study results.

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