Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

Details Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

2007-01-15

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166v2

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Going from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paper

Scientific paper

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.

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