Physics – Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Scientific paper
2007-01-15
Physics
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Going from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paper
Scientific paper
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.
Bellone Enrica
Jewson Stephen
Laepple Thomas
Nzerem Kechi
O'Shay Adam
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