Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

Details Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

1993-12-14

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9312055v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figures

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevE.50.236

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.

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