Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

Details Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

2001-05-14

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0105258v1

Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 017902 (2002)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks

10 pages, 3 figures

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.017902

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

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