Precursors and prediction of catastrophic avalanches

Details Precursors and prediction of catastrophic avalanches Precursors and prediction of catastrophic avalanches

2006-03-23

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0603618v1

Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience: A Statistical Physics Approach, (Springer, Berlin, 2006)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Soft Condensed Matter

19 pages and 18 figures

Scientific paper

In this work we review the precursors of catastrophic avalanches (global failures) in several failure models, namely (a) Fiber Bundle Model (FBM), (b) Random Fuse Model (RFM), (c) Sandpile Models and (d) Fractal Overlap Model. The precursor parameters identified here essentially reflect the growing correlations within such systems as they approach their respective failure points. As we show, often they help us to predict the global failure points in advance.

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