Physics – Condensed Matter – Disordered Systems and Neural Networks
Scientific paper
2010-10-03
Nature Physics, 2010
Physics
Condensed Matter
Disordered Systems and Neural Networks
Scientific paper
10.1038/nphys1760
While the fat tailed jump size and the waiting time distributions characterizing individual human trajectories strongly suggest the relevance of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) models of human mobility, no one seriously believes that human traces are truly random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modeling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on human mobility, captured by mobile phone traces, to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility. The model not only accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws but also allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents.
Barabasi Albert-László
Koren Tal
Song Chaoming
Wang Pu
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