Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise

Details Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise

2001-07-11

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0107226v1

Signal Processing 82 (2002)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

11 pages, 6 figures

Scientific paper

In this paper we address the issue of modeling electricity loads. After
analyzing properties of the deseasonalized loads from the California power
market we fit an ARMA(1,6) model to the data. The obtained residuals seem to be
independent but with tails heavier than Gaussian. It turns out that the
hyperbolic distribution provides an excellent fit.

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