Physics
Scientific paper
Jul 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003icrc....7.4131p&link_type=abstract
Proceedings of the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference. July 31-August 7, 2003. Trukuba, Japan. Under the auspices of the I
Physics
1
Scientific paper
The database of Professor Rogers, with wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray variations. The main object of the statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations in cosmic rays, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. Statistical properties of these two samples are similar both in averaged/median values of intervals and in standard deviation of this values. We show that histogram of intervals distribution for price bursts and solar minimums are coincidence with high confidence level. We analyzed direct links between wheat prices and solar activity in the th 17 Century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data as well as cosmic ray intensity (from 10 Be isotop e) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher than prices for the nine intervals of maximal solar activity proceed preceding to the minimums. This result, combined with the conclusion on similarity of statistical properties of the price bursts and solar activity extremes we consider as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.
Dorman Lev I.
Pustil'Nik Lev A.
Yom Din G.
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