Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability

Details Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability

2002-06-04

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0206040v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

Accepted for publishing in Physical Review Letters

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.028501

We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different scenarios: (i) with greenhouse gas forcing only and (ii) with greenhouse gas plus aerosol forcing. We find that the simulated records for both scenarios fail to reproduce the universal scaling behavior of the observed records, and display wide performance differences. The deviations from the scaling behavior are more pronounced in the first scenario, where also the trends are clearly overestimated.

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