Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought

Physics

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Biogeosciences: Biosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0315), Biogeosciences: Modeling, Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Paleoceanography: Dendrochronology

Scientific paper

We use a mechanistic model of tree-ring formation to simulate regional patterns of climate-tree growth relationships in the southeastern United States. Modeled chronologies are consistent with actual tree-ring data, demonstrating that our simulations have skill in reproducing broad-scale patterns of the proxy's response to climate variability. The model predicts that a decrease in summer precipitation, associated with a weakening Bermuda High, has become an additional control on tree ring growth during recent decades. A nonlinear response of tree growth to climate variability has implications for the calibration of tree-ring records for paleoclimate reconstructions and the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change.

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