Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups

Details Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups

2001-08-02

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0108028v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

Scientific paper

We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncertain event and compare it to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. Experiments show that this nonlinear aggregation mechanism vastly outperforms both the imperfect market and the best of the participants.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-186404