Firewalls, Disorder, and Percolation in Epidemics

Details Firewalls, Disorder, and Percolation in Epidemics Firewalls, Disorder, and Percolation in Epidemics

2001-06-21

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0106450v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

4 pages, 4 figures

Scientific paper

We consider a spatial model related to bond percolation for the spread of a disease that includes variation in the susceptibility to infection. We work on a lattice with random bond strengths and show that with strong disorder, i.e. a wide range of variation of susceptibility, patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for epidemic outbreak depends strongly on the disorder. These results are qualitatively different from those of standard models in epidemiology, but correspond to real effects.

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