Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Oct 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3519501d&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 19, CiteID L19501
Physics
Geophysics
6
Cryosphere: Sea Ice (4540), Cryosphere: Remote Sensing, Global Change: Cryospheric Change (0776), Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245, 4263), Geographic Location: Arctic Region (0718, 4207)
Scientific paper
The record Arctic sea ice minimum in 2007 has heightened debate on whether the Arctic Ocean has reached a tipping point, leading to a rapid transition towards a seasonal ice cover. Here, we review the 2007-2008 winter and spring ice and atmosphere conditions and assess how likely another record minimum is in summer 2008. At the end of June, 67% of the Arctic Ocean was covered by younger-than-average ice and only 5% was covered by older than-average-ice. Using a simple estimate based on ice survival rates, a new record low is reached in 2008 in 24 of 25 cases. With a more complex linear regression model, we suggest the September sea ice extent will be 4.40 million square kilometers, with a 40% chance that 2008 will set a new record low Arctic ice minimum.
Drobot Sheldon
Emery William
Fowler Charles
Kay Jennifer
Maslanik James
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