Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Details Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Oct 1991

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991fmet.symp..189a&link_type=abstract

In NASA. Goddard Space Flight Center, Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1991 p 189-207 (SEE N92-14070 05-13)

Physics

Chaos, Nonlinear Systems, Period Doubling, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Predictions, Solar Flux, Statistical Analysis, Convection, Equations Of Motion, Hypotheses, Logarithms, Nonlinearity, Routes, Spectra

Scientific paper

Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

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