Epidemics, disorder, and percolation

Details Epidemics, disorder, and percolation Epidemics, disorder, and percolation

2003-01-21

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0301394v2

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

8 pages, 4 figures, proceedings of the conference "Stochastic systems: From randomness to complexity", Erice, 2002

Scientific paper

10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00176-6

Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for epidemic outbreak depends strongly on the disorder because the critical region of the corresponding percolation model is broadened. In some networks the percolation threshold is zero if another kind of disorder is present, namely divergent fluctuations in the number of contacts. We give an example, a network with a well defined geography, where this is not necessarily so, and discuss whether real infection networks are likely to have this property.

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