Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking

Details Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking

2003-10-07

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0310135v2

Phys. Rev. Letts. 93 (22), 228701 (2004)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

5 pages including 3 figures final version published in Physical Review Letters

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.228701

Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or the result of a well orchestrated advertisement? Determining the chain of causality for extreme events in complex systems requires disentangling interwoven exogenous and endogenous contributions with either no clear or too many signatures. Here, we study the precursory and recovery signatures accompanying shocks, that we test on a unique database of the Amazon sales ranking of books. We find clear distinguishing signatures classifying two types of sales peaks. Exogenous peaks occur abruptly and are followed by a power law relaxation, while endogenous sale peaks occur after a progressively accelerating power law growth followed by an approximately symmetrical power law relaxation which is slower than for exogenous peaks. These results are rationalized quantitatively by a simple model of epidemic propagation of interactions with long memory within a network of acquaintances. The slow relaxation of sales implies that the sales dynamics is dominated by cascades rather than by the direct effects of news or advertisements, indicating that the social network is close to critical.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-320205