Electoral surveys influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

Details Electoral surveys influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model Electoral surveys influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

2002-04-05

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0204139v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

15 pages, 9 figures

Scientific paper

10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01208-6

Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision-making. In this work a cellular automata (CA) model for the dynamics of free elections based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the ``{\it status quo}'' was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching the power through the electoral path.

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