Do the sunspot numbers form a 'chaotic' set?

Details Do the sunspot numbers form a 'chaotic' set? Do the sunspot numbers form a 'chaotic' set?

Dec 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992jgr....9719113p&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227), vol. 97, no. A12, p. 19,113-19,120.

Physics

30

Chaos, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity Effects, Stochastic Processes, Sunspot Cycle, Data Bases, Solar Cycles, Systems Analysis

Scientific paper

A complex systems analysis was performed of the set of monthly sunspot numbers on the raw (i.e., unfiltered) monthly sunspot number data set and on data sets derived from it, in particular, an 'unrectified' set with a 22-year period. In contrast to findings of previous authors who have analyzed filtered or smoothed sunspot number sets derived from the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers, no evidence was found in the present study of the presence of low-dimensional deterministic behavior. Moreover, by considering suitably constructed surrogate data sets (Theiler et al., 1991), it is shown that filtering techniques can give some spurious evidence for the presence of deterministic nonlinear behavior.

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