Data derived Dst model

Details Data derived Dst model Data derived Dst model

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm51a1740b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM51A-1740

Physics

[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting

Scientific paper

A mathematical model for the dynamics of the Dst index has been identified using the NARMAX OLS-ERR methodology. The NARMAX OLS-ERR algorithm, which is widely used in the field of system identification, is able to identify a mathematical model of any system using input and output data sets. The model uses a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function, obtained using the error reduction ratio (ERR) in the NARMAX OLS-ERR procedure, as the input and the Dst index as the output. The frequency response was then calculated from the model and analyzed to determine the details about the nonlinearities involved in the evolution of the Dst index. The data deduced model was also used to forecast the Dst index.

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