Are Financial Crashes Predictable?

Details Are Financial Crashes Predictable? Are Financial Crashes Predictable?

1998-04-09

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9804111v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

LaTeX, 5 pages + 1 postscript figure

Scientific paper

10.1209/epl/i1999-00122-9

We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted
using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the
physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction'
does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local
minima.

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