Application of the forecasting pronostic method to the evaluation of P-P cross-sections at very high energies

Details Application of the forecasting pronostic method to the evaluation of P-P cross-sections at very high energies Application of the forecasting pronostic method to the evaluation of P-P cross-sections at very high energies

Aug 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001icrc....4.1354p&link_type=abstract

Proceedings of the 27th International Cosmic Ray Conference. 07-15 August, 2001. Hamburg, Germany. Under the auspices of the Int

Physics

Scientific paper

The ability of a statistical method to reproduce data of any physical quantity with high precision gives the pattern for the prediction of out of the range data. Prediction procedures of significant physical quantities represent a useful tool in drawing inferences about the behaivor of the outofthe range data and so, about the generator events. Theoretical predictions out of the range of a data set involve a certain degree of uncertainty. With the aim of evaluating the confidence of such predictions it is convenient to determine the uncertainty associated to the predictions of the data. In the context of p-p cross sections at very high energies a great deal of work has been done out of the energy range of accelerators using different models (single-pomeron, dipole pomeron, multiple-diffraction, QCD and so on) to extrapolate accelerator data: predictions are usually compared to cosmic ray data producing a disagreement which explanation has also been widely discussed in the literature. We claim that such comparison requires of a highly confident band of uncertainty for any parametrization model. Here, we present a statistical method that allows to determine the relevant uncertainty. Our preliminary study shows that extrapolations without a trusful determination of error bands may agree with most of the results of Cosmic ray experiments, because their reported experimental errors are very large, but as soon as such a confident determination is made the predicted energy dependence of σtot pp with its error band delimitates the range of agreement between any prediction model and cosmic ray results.

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