An Investigation of Crash Avoidance in a Complex System

Details An Investigation of Crash Avoidance in a Complex System An Investigation of Crash Avoidance in a Complex System

2002-07-24

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0207588v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks

12 pages, 6 figures. Revised version of previous paper to appear in Physica A

Scientific paper

10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01381-X

Complex systems can exhibit unexpected large changes, e.g. a crash in a financial market. We examine the large endogenous changes arising within a non-trivial generalization of the Minority Game: the Grand Canonical Minority Game (GCMG). Using a Markov Chain description, we study the many possible paths the system may take. This 'many-worlds' view not only allows us to predict the start and end of a crash in this system, but also to investigate how such a crash may be avoided. We find that the system can be 'immunized' against large changes: by inducing small changes today, much larger changes in the future can be prevented.

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