An Empirical Investigation of the Forward Interest Rate Term Structure

Details An Empirical Investigation of the Forward Interest Rate Term Structure An Empirical Investigation of the Forward Interest Rate Term Structure

1999-07-20

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9907297v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

34 pages, Latex + 17 EPS figures

Scientific paper

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a Value-at-Risk like pricing. We find a striking correlation between the instantaneous FRC and the past spot trend over a certain time horizon, in agreement with the idea of an extrapolated trend effect. We present a model which can be adequately calibrated to account for these effects.

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