Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries

Details Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries

2002-04-14

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0204306v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

Not only a contribution to the German federal elections; 5 pages incl.figs

Scientific paper

Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.

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