Persistence and Quiescence of Seismicity on Fault Systems

Details Persistence and Quiescence of Seismicity on Fault Systems Persistence and Quiescence of Seismicity on Fault Systems

1999-04-23

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9904335v1

Physical Review Letters 83 N20:4219-4222 (1999)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

4 pages, 3 figures, Revtex

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevLett.83.4219

We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time Dt following the previous activity shift is proportional to the inverse of Dt to the power 1+x, a result that is robust in the presence of annealed noise and strength weakening. A mean field theory accounts for the observed dependence of the persistence exponent x as a function of heterogeneity and distance between faults. These results continue to hold if the number of competing faults is increased. This is related to the persistence phenomenon discovered in a large variety of systems, which specifies how long a relaxing dynamical system remains in a neighborhood of its initial configuration. Our persistence exponent is found to vary as a function of heterogeneity and distance between faults, thus defining a novel universality class.

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