Physics – Condensed Matter
Scientific paper
1998-11-05
Eur. Phys. J. B 9, pp. 167-174 (1999)
Physics
Condensed Matter
18 pages with 4 figures. Submitted to Eur.Phys.J
Scientific paper
We propose that the minimal requirements for a model of stock market price fluctuations should comprise time asymmetry, robustness with respect to connectivity between agents, ``bounded rationality'' and a probabilistic description. We also compare extensively two previously proposed models of log-periodic behavior of the stock market index prior to a large crash. We find that the model which follows the above requirements outperforms the other with a high statistical significance.
Johansen Anders
Sornette Didier
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