Precursors, aftershocks, criticality and self-organized criticality

Details Precursors, aftershocks, criticality and self-organized criticality Precursors, aftershocks, criticality and self-organized criticality

1996-12-07

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9612065v1

Europhysics Letters 41, 43-48 1998

Physics

Condensed Matter

4 pages,3 postscript figures, use LaTeX, with [prl,twocolumn,aps,epsf]{revtex}

Scientific paper

10.1209/epl/i1998-00113-x

We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest fault carries irregular great earthquakes preceded by precursors developing over long time scales and followed by aftershocks obeying an Omori's law. The cumulative energy released by precursors follows a time-to-failure power law with log-periodic structures, qualifying a large event as an effective dynamical (depinning) critical point. Down the hierarchy, smaller earthquakes exhibit the same phenomenology, albeit with increasing irregularities.

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