Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999

Details Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999 Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999

2000-02-03

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0002059v1

Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 11 (2), 359-364 (2000)

Physics

Condensed Matter

6 pages including 2 figures

Scientific paper

10.1142/S012918310000033X

In January 1999, the authors published a quantitative prediction that the Nikkei index should recover from its 14 year low in January 1999 and reach $\approx 20500$ a year later. The purpose of the present paper is to evaluate the performance of this specific prediction as well as the underlying model: the forecast, performed at a time when the Nikkei was at its lowest (as we can now judge in hindsight), has correctly captured the change of trend as well as the quantitative evolution of the Nikkei index since its inception. As the change of trend from sluggish to recovery was estimated quite unlikely by many observers at that time, a Bayesian analysis shows that a skeptical (resp. neutral) Bayesian sees her prior belief in our model amplified into a posterior belief 19 times larger (resp. reach the 95% level).

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999 does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Evaluation of the quantitative prediction of a trend reversal on the Japanese stock market in 1999 will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-390876