Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth

Details Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth

2001-07-09

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0107173v1

Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 99 SUPP1:2522-2529 (2002)

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

Latex document of 22 pages including 6 ps figures, in press in PNAS

Scientific paper

10.1073/pnas.022581999

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and human parturition (birth).

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