Modeling Supply Chains and Business Cycles as Unstable Transport Phenomena

Details Modeling Supply Chains and Business Cycles as Unstable Transport Phenomena Modeling Supply Chains and Business Cycles as Unstable Transport Phenomena

2003-01-13

arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0301204v1

Physics

Condensed Matter

Statistical Mechanics

For related work see http://www.helbing.org. A considerably extended version with many additional figures and discussion of ne

Scientific paper

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in the consumption rate can cause large variations in the production rate of companies generating the requested product. Interestingly, the resulting oscillations have characteristic frequencies which are considerably lower than the variations in the consumption rate. This suggests that instabilities of supply chains may be the reason for the existence of business cycles. At the same time, we establish some link to queuing theory and between micro- and macroeconomics.

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