Orbitally-Induced, Quasi-Periodic Climate Change on Mars: Modelling Changes in the Global Cycling of Water and Carbon Dioxide

Physics – Fluid Dynamics

Scientific paper

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0343 Planetary Atmospheres (5405, 5407, 5409, 5704, 5705, 5707), 1620 Climate Dynamics (3309), 3344 Paleoclimatology, 5445 Meteorology (3346), 6225 Mars

Scientific paper

Mars' orbital parameters (obliquity, eccentricity and argument of perihelion) are thought to have varied substantially on time scales >105 years. Such variations, especially in obliquity, may drastically affect the circulation of the atmosphere and volatile cycling. In this study, we focus on the response of the water and carbon dioxide cycles to changes in these orbital parameters, chiefly obliquity. The study employs the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Mars General Circulation Model, conducting simulations over a range of orbital states to examine changes in the cycling and deposition of these volatiles. This model contains full 3D accounting of atmospheric water and carbon dioxide as well as a basic dust cycle. The present martian obliquity is 25°, though it is believed to have recently varied between 15 and 45 degrees. Our simulations look at present martian conditions, only with obliquity varying between 5 and 60 degrees. Simulations are run out until water and carbon dioxide budgets have reached equilibrium--typically 30-40 years. As expected, volatile cycling on Mars increases with obliquity, as the polar caps are exposed to increased insolation, leading to greater seasonal ice caps and ultimately development of surface water ice in the now thermally favorible low latitudes. By 45°, water ice is stable in a broad band just north of the equator. Such an ice distribution has potential implications for the surface wind pattern through the ice-albedo effect on surface heating. Permanent polar CO2 caps are not stable under present conditions, but we find CO2 cap growth and corresponding atmospheric deflation to be evident at very low obliquities. We find that for most choices of orbital conditions, the northern hemisphere remains the stable pole for water ice, a result of the martian topographic dichotomy. We have begun to look at the impact of desorbed CO2 and H2O ice from the regolith on climatic conditions. Present estimates of the volatile abundance in the regolith vary greatly, but recent Mars Odyssey results hint at large abundances of water ice in the martian high-latitude regolith. The results of this study should better define models of polar volatile evolution, specifically those of layered terrain formation. The radiative feedback effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and H2O from the polar caps and regoliths has yet to be examined. Future plans include more accurate representations of dust injection and radiative transfer to tackle this problem.

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